I can already tell this is going to be one of those years. The nominees are out and it would be awesome if the ones I wanted to win would win, but... I can already tell it's not gonna happen and too bad, so sad, because the rest of the field is pretty fucking meh, know what I mean? But... y'know, me and lists, right? Plus, it is the Oscars, and as we all know, the law requires everyone in the U.S. to make a yearly Oscars prediction. It's the law, people, and I am nothing, if not a good citizen, so let's get my version over with. I should let you know though, I'm only going to do the big awards this time, because like I said: meh. Also, in the spirit of full disclosure, I should admit that I may not have seen more than half of these films. With that in mind: Tally ho!
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
I think nine nominees just for Best Picture is stupid, mostly because it's the only one, but also because it has become obvious that Director and Picture usually go hand in hand, so four are out right away. What does that mean for Argo? Tough Titty, Ben Affleck! Suck it! Amour? Yeah, no, the Academy did arty fluff no one really liked last year, so no. Same with Life of Pi. No one saw it, less people liked it. And most importantly: No buzz. So it's out. Beasts and Silver Linings? In order to have any hope of winning, they're going to have to capture some kind of media story in the next few weeks to overcome the apparent triumphant return of Oscar darling, the supposedly Non-crappy Spielberg.
Who should win: Beasts of the Southern Wild (Maybe not "should", but it's who I want.)
Who will win: Lincoln (Oscar Porn)
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Michael Haneke, Amour
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Like I said above: Picture and Director are one, they are really pulled asunder. And even that aside, all the other reasons stated above apply.
Who should win: Benh Zeitlin (creating movies like Beasts out of nothing? That's directing)
Who will win: Senor Spielbergo (He knows what the Academy wants and he gives it to them... hard.)
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Denzel Washington, Flight
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Hugh Jackman is Wolverine. Bradley Cooper is a smug, fratboy looking douche. They're both out. Joaquin Phoenix is too weird and he once quit acting, making him a blood traitor, plus his movie is "secretly" about L. Ron Hubbard and Scientology, that pisses off a lot of Academy Voters. So this is really a tussle between two of the Academy's favorites. Now, some would say Denzel is out because he already got both his "we're not racists" Oscar AND his "sorry we used you to make ourselves feel better" Oscar. Others might say he's in exactly for that reason. I say he's out because besides his performance, Flight is a considered to be a God awful crap-fest of a movie, but when has that ever stopped the Academy? Daniel Day-Lewis is also a two time winner and God knows, the Academy loves a super devoted method Actor, it validates them all. BUT... Lincoln has a lot of nominations and it looks like it will be Lincoln's year and that usually means a nominated Actor losing, just to try to make the Academy Voters look discerning. So who will it be? Questions, questions.
Who should win: Pppppppppppppbbbbbbbbbbhhhhhhhhhhtttttttttttttttt (fart)
Who will win: Daniel Day-Lewis (ACTING!)
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts is out. People hate her. It's true! Don't pretend like it isn't. Everyone hates Naomi Watts. She just... wants it too much, y'know? Jessica Chastain is out, her character work can too easily be dismissed in Zero Dark Thirty and besides, the Academy wants to skirt the whole stupid controversy that comes with the film. Emmanuelle Riva and Quvenzhane Wallis both have a good story, one of them being super old and the other one being super young. The Academy loves to trumpet that shit in a: "Look how good they are despite their handicaps!" kind of way (rolls eyes). Their problem is Riva doesn't have the obvious and much loved body of work behind her to put her over the top and the same reason applies to Quvenzhane Wallis, plus very few people can pronounce her name. Jennifer Lawerence on the other hand, she is widely regarded as extremely talented, she is cute with just the right amount of awkward quirkiness, and she's a box office draw. The people love her. She's a lock.
Who should win: Quvenzhane Wallis (She's just so god damn adorable)
Who will win: Jennifer Lawrence (She is also just so god damn adorable)
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Tommy Lee Jones is out, most likely because he's the Lincoln Award Sweep sacrifice. It's always the Supporting Actor. It seems like the Academy is a little mad a Tarantino, snubbing him for Director and Picture, so Waltz is also probably out. Phillip Seymour Hoffman dared to play a thinly disguised Hubbard, so he's out. Rober De Niro would be a shoe-in because he's Robert De Niro and he's not appearing in one of those crappy Meet the Parents films, except for the fact that Alan Arkin went for what is one of Hollywood's mostest favoritest of all roles: The Inside Baseball role that upholds the Magic and Myth of Hollywood. He plays a charming and funny successful Movie Producer in the know who is funny and charming and successful. The Academy is going to lap that shit up with a spoon.
Who should win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman (He's just really good)
Who will win: Alan Arkin (He's also good, but he's winning for another reason.)
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Sally Field, Lincoln
I don't really have any reasons why anyone specifically would be out of the running, except for Amy Adams and a pissed off Scientology Faction of Academy voters. Helen Hunt is kind of a random shot across the bow. Sally Field still has that embarrassing quote hanging over her head. Jacki Weaver? I got nothing. It doesn't matter, really, because this is Anne Hathaway's year. She's a lock. She has all the buzz. Apparently her performance is amazing and the people really seem to love her despite a few recent... ahem... slips...
Who should win: Anne Hathaway (whatever)
Who will win: Anne Hathaway (why not?)
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
The Pirates movie is dumb and it doesn't belong on the same list as the others. Frankenweenie and ParaNorman might be hindered by their horror movie bend, which the Academy does not recognize as a valid genre. Wreck-it Ralph is supposed to be fun and cute, but it might be too modern of a topic, most of it's jokes and settings lost on the aging Academy voting base. But all that aside... Brave is awesome. Plus, it's Pixar.
Who should win: Brave (Because it's awesome)
Who will win: Brave (Because it's Pixar)
Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
Flight, John Gatins
Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola
Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal
I have no idea why Flight was nominated. Amour is out for lack of familiarity, the nomination here is just to validate the Best Picture and Director nominations. Zero Dark Thirty? Too much controversy, but they're probably more afraid of what Tarantino would do on stage, if he won and because of that, they're out too. At least, Zero Dark Thirty is out, Tarantino may not be. Be that as it may, I'm betting on Moonrise Kingdom here, it's a film that maybe should have gotten a nod for Best Picture and this will be it's conciliatory prize. Also, it's a good film.
Who should win: Moonrise Kingdom (It deserves some accolades)
Who will win: Django Unchained (Potential trouble or not, Quentin brings the people)
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin
Life of Pi, David Magee
Lincoln, Tony Kushner
Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell
This one is a little tougher. First off, Silver Linings is out. Its strength is in its actors, not its script. Life of Pi has nothing, no buzz, no appeal, it's a non-starter. Beasts of the Southern Wild may have an in, simply because it won't win any other awards, but the same could be said of Argo, especially in the wake of its Golden Globes surprise wins. But then there's Lincoln. It's pretty much the movie to beat this year, isn't it?